Wednesday, 29 December 2010

A Browser-Based 2011.

There are a great many bloggers at the moment who have chosen this random date-based event to make predictions about 2011. Some have simply repeated everything LL has said and are thus likely to be proved ‘right’, others have seen what a nonsense it is and mocked the whole exercise.

Jung always loved those that speculated about the unknown because they simply manifest their own unconscious in their predictions.

Some of what 2011 has in store for us is not pure speculation though, it is based on visible trends and stated intent, like the stuff LL has ‘promised’ to deliver.

Now, we don’t know for certain that LL has decided to go for The 100 Million Users, but from all their recent moves and changes it seems fair to assume that they want as many people as possible in SL, even at the expense of SL losing it’s lead as the foremost VW.... even if these people are to dim to download a viewer.

Argumentum ad populum is the fallacy that the majority must be right. .... wikipedia gives the following examples...

"The fallacy is [also] common in marketing:
▪ Brand X vacuum cleaners are the country's leading brand; so buy Brand X vacuum cleaners.
▪ Watch Show X - the #1 watched show on television!
Other examples:
▪ Fifty million Elvis fans can't be wrong.
▪ All of my friends are doing it.
▪ In a court of law, the jury vote by majority, therefore they will always make the correct decision.
▪ Google gives more hits when this spelling is applied, therefore this has to be the correct spelling.
▪ Most analysts consider Enron Corporation a well-run company with excellent management, so its common stock is a good investment."

etc... there are

Now, whether it is the desire to conform that makes this fallacy so popular is open to debate, but LL has decided, it seems, that because so many people play StupidVille, then the way to be A More Successful Business is to copy them. Jump on the bandwagon, even if the bandwagon is being driven by fools, even if it may disappear as quickly as it appeared.

So....the browser-based, dumbed down SL is on the cards, we all “know” this as a possible future for SL.

There is another business model which they could have used. If you come to a prominent position in the market but decide that you are a little ahead of the mainstream, you do not have to dumb down to attract more people. LL could have used their lead to consolidate their position and driven full steam ahead to create an untouchable platform where tools, facilities, customer care, etc etc were just so far ahead of the competition that they were ready for when the mainstream caught up (for I fully believe they will one day). Educating the mainstream is a constructive use of an advertising budget.

As it is, it seems to me, based on my experience of 2010, that a large proportion of SL users will become more and more mobile.

SL is not the only game in town, and when the new physics engine is in place in InWorldz, SL will no longer be the best. It will be the biggest for a good while still, but... this preoccupation with numbers is a bit daft.

It is the way of ‘keeping score’.. how many “followers” you have, how many “friends”... these are game rules for the new social media.

Social Media is a false name anyway, there is not much social about Twitter (which is a bulletin board), or Facebook (which is crap), not when you compare the experience to sitting watching the sunset with two or three friends in SL, your feet dangling in a splashing fountain, chatting at length about nothing much.... I am There, and so are my friends.... the number of people on my “friends list” is totally irrelevant, as is concurrency.

This Keeping Score is so Male, anyway..."How many pigs did you kill today?"....yukkk...

So, if I have any prediction for 2011, apart from mesh falling flat and browser-based SL being a flop, it is that IWz slowly jogs past SL while it is asleep (or farming bunnies), like the tortoise and the hare.

Time will tell.



  1. hmmph. Obviously LL doesn't have competent staff - I can guarantee them a One Million Points Of Light... erm, I mean, consumerables. It is simple.

    "Free Beer."

    They will FLOCK.

    Ok, have I proved myself enough to be the new LL Marketing Director? *blows across nails* just call my office and set up an appointment.

  2. Tthis was the most acid reflux I've seen from your side, but I am all for miso's idea of free beer

  3. I predict that in 2011, Linden Labs' units for viewer and simulator programming will be taken over by one of soror's trees (apparently gone viral from InWorldz, although "pollinating" might be a more apt metaphor). Fantastic improvements will rapidly ensue, including a tripling of FPS rates, nearly negligible lag, and the ability to set to midnight with a keyboard shortcut. As part of resuming its commitment to Burning Life, LL will promptly fire (or set fire to) the tree.

  4. OK...Heh Heh No need for me to try and predict the Secondlife future for this coming year.

    I suspect you've pretty well covered it all soror. If I created anything but a community I would spend more time with those of my friends currently in Inz. As it is, all of my Secondlife resident family have created accounts there, "just in case". (/me waits patiently for physics engine)

  5. Yep- I agree with Betty. Did you eat too much at Christmas?

  6. I like your analysis for the most part. Although you should really check out the mesh grid sometime, I doubt very much that after having seen the potential of mesh for yourself that you will continue to hold the view that it will be a "flop". Mesh is like sculpts.. on speed.

  7. @Miso... when can you start?

    @Betty.... well, must be the Nick Hornby I'm reading...

    @Dividni. All possible except the keyboard shortcut...that's a bit radical.

    @Brinda... friends are gold in any world.

    @Juanita. *sob* no Christmas pudding yet!!

    @Matt.. yep, mesh is like sculpts, agreed.

  8. i really think i remember Oz Linden saying that 2.X would be mandatory by New Years. Two days to go!
    @Miso Princess Marketing Director of Lindenland

  9. Carl Jung? i would think LL would indeed have the desire to hit the millionth user (they smack most of their serious users anyway)

    the only prediction i am holding out for is a remake of the Bandai Drossel. i so wanted one . . .

  10. Great post! "I am There, and so are my friends.... the number of people on my “friends list” is totally irrelevant, as is concurrency.
    " This is so true.... FB is really crap compared! Superficial.

    And this "competition" in how long your friendlist is? omg. I prefer a shorter friendlist with REAL friends on, not just a lot of names.

    I also have been expecting a browser based alternative in quite a long time now. Maybee this year...The LL betatest was quite good i think. A combination with a ordinary download client would be great.

    Happy new year! =)